Knocking at the College Door | 11th Edition | 2024

Summary

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates has been an important resource for policymakers, decision-makers, researchers, and planners in education and workforce development since the first edition was produced in 1979. The 11th edition includes this comprehensive report and interactive data visualizations.

Visit wiche.edu/knocking.

Key findings include:

• The total number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 and then decline steadily through 2041.
• The proportion of future public high school graduating classes who come from underrepresented racial and ethnic backgrounds — particularly Hispanic and Multiracial graduates — will continue to increase. 
• Compared to 2023, 38 states will see declines in the number of graduates by 2041 as most regions in the U.S. continue to shrink. 
• COVID-19’s impact on the education pipeline is modest, but will be felt for years to come. Learning loss will continue to be a challenge. 
• Beyond the “enrollment cliff”: Potential solutions and strategies may address the upcoming declines and ensure college enrollments that help meet future workforce needs. Those include additional investments to make college more affordable, making financial aid more transparent and less confusing, introducing better academic and wraparound supports for postsecondary learners, and establishing more powerful pathways to and from work and learning.