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Report: High school graduates will peak next year, then most states will see steady declines through 2041
Knocking at the College Door authors say report adds urgency to efforts by state, campus, and business leaders to strengthen education systems and create the skilled workforce the nation will need
BOULDER, Colorado — For many years, demographers have warned that the number of high school graduates would peak then decline, adding new pressure to postsecondary enrollments facing the proverbial “cliff.” As predicted, the United States next year will reach its highest peak ever for high school graduates and then enter a period of prolonged decline, according to the 11th edition of Knocking at the College Door released today by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).
“The news for colleges and the workforce is cause for concern,” notes WICHE President Demarée Michelau. “Yet even for the more populated states that will bear most of the decline, the bottom will not fall out overnight. States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs. There are still plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our education systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners, including those with previous college experience.”
The data analysis by WICHE, which includes a comprehensive report and interactive online dashboards, projects the number of high school graduates in the United States and has been released about every four years since 1979. Supported by the College Board and Lumina Foundation, the 11th edition of Knocking reveals that in 2025 the nation will see the highest number of high school graduates (3.9 million) since data have been available. Then the numbers of graduates will steadily decline through the end of the projections in 2041, when there will be 3.4 million graduates, or a 13% decline.
The decline in the number of high school graduates is based primarily on declines in U.S. births. It is also influenced by two other factors: the COVID-19 pandemic reduced a sizeable number of K-12 students who may have left education altogether (while creating new challenges for student learning) and nationwide high school graduation rates have plateaued in recent years.
Regional variation. The distribution of the decline in high school graduates will vary across states. Compared to the last year of reported data in 2023, most U.S. states (38) will see losses in the number of high school graduates through 2041. Five of the nation’s largest states by population — California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%), and Pennsylvania (-17%) — will account for about three-quarters of the decline in high school graduates, the report says. Eight states will see significant enrollment declines of more than 20% and five of the nation’s largest states by population — California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%), and Pennsylvania (-17%) — will account for three-quarters (75%) of the decline in high school graduates. Meanwhile, nine of 17 states in the South will see gains or no change, and gains in some of those states will be significant, such as Washington, D.C. (+31%), Tennessee (+15%), South Carolina (+14%), and Florida (+12%).
Increase in rural and suburban high school graduates. The data reveal that the percentage of students from schools in cities will decline from 31% to 29% between the 2022-23 and 2033-34 school years, while high school seniors from suburban schools are projected to increase from 43% to 45% of the total, and those from schools in rural areas are projected to increase from 15% to 16% of the total.
Increase in underrepresented public high school graduates. Traditionally underrepresented public high school graduates, driven by Hispanic students (which will grow from 27% to 36% of the total public graduating class) and public high school students from Multiracial backgrounds, will continue to grow at a high rate. Even in cases where the total number declines, these public high school graduates will still increase as a proportion of the total graduating class. But the number of White (-26%), Black (-22%) and American Indian/Alaska Native (-41%) public high school graduates will decline significantly compared to 2023, and the number of Asian/Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders will decline by a modest amount between 2022 and 2041.
The next few years represent an opportunity for states, business leaders, and higher education to work together to develop stronger connections to K-12 schools, better incentives and financial and academic supports for postsecondary learning, and more powerful pathways to and from work and learning…There are strong, evidence-backed approaches that can truly benefit students and also help meet the daunting workforce challenges of the future.
Patrick Lane Vice President, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE, and lead author of Knocking at the College Door, 11th edition
Potential solutions and strategies. The projected declines will add to the pressures already faced by higher education campuses, state economic development offices, and different sectors of the economy wrestling with workforce shortages. A convergence of factors — questions about the value of higher education, the racial and ethnic diversification of the U.S. population, and the lingering impacts of a global pandemic on generations to come — requires both urgency and action. There are a number of potential approaches that could help provide new educational and training opportunities for all students and help address the demographic decline.
- Investing in college affordability on a larger scale to make college possible for all students through a new state-federal partnership to provide the necessary resources and certainty for students and institutions and promise programs that provide financial-aid guarantees for students.
- Enhancing high school advising and the development of stronger school-to-work and work-to-learning pipelines to ensure that more students, including underrepresented students, are prepared for emerging jobs and have supports needed to navigate higher education systems.
- Reducing complexity for college admissions and financial aid through direct admissions programs for high school students who meet certain criteria to enroll at specific campuses, as well as make financial aid more transparent and less confusing.
- Expanding wraparound supports for college students across all areas of need, including financial and academic supports, food and transportation programs, and more.
- Addressing access and persistence gaps. Future graduating classes will have higher proportions of students of color and working to ensure that they have equitable opportunities compared to their peers will be essential for meeting future workforce needs. While college completion rates (measured through National Center for Education Statistics data) have shown some improvement, overall retention from the first to the second year of postsecondary education is around 70%, meaning that colleges can do more to retain and graduate students.
- Expanding credit for prior learning for adult students. Colleges also can reach out to tens of millions of adult learners who have some college but no degree and give credit for prior learning. Research from the Council for Adult and Experiential Learners and WICHE has shown that adults who receive credit through prior learning assessment are about 17% more likely to complete credentials and take more for-credit courses.
“The next few years represent an opportunity for states, business leaders, and higher education to work together to develop stronger connections to K-12 schools, better incentives and financial and academic supports for postsecondary learning, and more powerful pathways to and from work and learning,” said Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president for policy analysis and research and lead author of the report. “This is not the first time higher education has faced enrollment headwinds, and the ultimate outcome does not need to be gloomy. There are strong, evidence-backed approaches that can truly benefit students and also help meet the daunting workforce challenges of the future.”
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About Knocking at the College Door
Knocking at the College Door, a resource WICHE has regularly updated since the initial release in 1979, examines recent births, U.S. enrollment from first grade to high school and graduation numbers to project future graduates. This resource is intended to provide information to policymakers, postsecondary and K-12 educational leaders, researchers, and other decision-makers so they can target resources effectively to meet the education and workforce needs of current and future populations and industries. Visit wiche.edu/knocking.
About WICHE
A regional interstate higher education compact, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) has been strengthening higher education, workforce development, and behavioral health throughout the region since 1953. From promoting high-quality, affordable postsecondary education to helping the West get the most from their technology investments and addressing behavioral health challenges, WICHE improves lives across the region through innovation, cooperation, resource sharing, and sound public policy. Visit wiche.edu.
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