Beyond the cliff: Potential strategies and solutions to meet the education and workforce challenges ahead.

The coming peak and subsequent decline — colloquially referred to as the “enrollment cliff” — has been predicted for years. Yet now that the moment is here, it can be jarring for those in education and workforce development. Despite the projected declines in education enrollment, students under the age of 25 still make up about two-thirds of all incoming college students, which means that the pipeline from high school to college is still the source of the majority of undergraduate students. It is our hope that education policymakers and practitioners are considering and implementing the following evidence-based policies and practices to be more efficient and effective with students who are graduating from high school, as well as re-engaging adult learners.

Reducing the costs of attending college: Investing in college affordability on a larger scale to make college possible for all students through a new state-federal partnership to provide the necessary resources and certainty for students and institutions; and promise programs that provide financial aid guarantees for students.

Enhancing high school advising: Enhancing advising and the development of stronger school-to-work and work-to-learning pipelines to ensure that more students, including underrepresented students, are prepared for emerging jobs and have supports needed to navigate higher education systems.

Simplifying the college-going process: Reducing complexity for college admissions and financial aid through direct admissions programs that tell high school students who meet certain criteria that they qualify for enrollment in particular institutions and making financial aid more transparent and less confusing.

Expanding postsecondary wraparound student supports: Expanding wraparound supports for students across all areas of need, including financial and academic supports, intensive advising, free or discounted transportation programs, and other supports.

Addressing achievement gaps of underrepresented students: Addressing access and persistence gaps by ensuring that underrepresented students – who will make up a greater proportion of future graduating classes — have equitable opportunities compared to their peers.

Attracting and retaining adult learners: Expanding opportunities and access for adult students through evidence-backed approaches, such as granting credit for prior learning

Future Demographics Research

WICHE is always looking for ways to provide additional information and analysis for education leaders and policymakers. Future research efforts are likely to include:

• Pacific high school graduates
  American Samoa, Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia have all joined WICHE since 2010. In upcoming work, WICHE intends to complete a detailed analysis of high school graduate trends in the Pacific Islands region.
• Students with moderate likelihood of attending postsecondary education
  Providing finer-grained research on students who are not certain to attend education or training programs after finishing high school would give states and others greater insight into the types of students who are “persuadable” but not certain. This could help lead to improved programs to boost postsecondary access.
• High school numbers by locale
  While state-level information can be useful, it is also important to identify how demographic trends may impact distinct types of locations within states (rural, suburban, urban, city).
• Gender
  Differences in student outcomes by gender have been apparent for some time, with women more likely than men to complete high school and go on directly to college. Future analysis will examine projecting trends by gender, including ways that gender may intersect with race and ethnicity.