The number of graduates who identify as Hispanic or Multiracial is expected to grow.

Understanding the demographic shifts and the characteristics of future students is essential to meeting their needs. This includes factors like student gender, location (urban and rural settings), as well as race and ethnicity. In this analysis, WICHE finds that underrepresented graduates by race and ethnicity continue to increase as a proportion of total graduating classes from public high schools and are projected to continue doing so in coming years. These trends have persisted in virtually all editions of Knocking at the College Door since the first detailed analysis by race and ethnicity was possible in 1998.

Importantly, this section of analysis refers only to public high school graduates and enrollees because race and ethnicity data from private high schools are not available. WICHE utilizes federally defined categories for race and ethnicity categorization and definition, which are explained in more depth in the report PDF.

Hispanic public school graduates: Hispanic public high school graduates will increase more than previously predicted from about 944,000 students (26% of the total public graduating class) to about 1.1 million students (36% of the project public graduating class) in 2041.

Multiracial public school graduates: Multiracial public high school graduates, or those who identify as Two or More Races according to the U.S. Census Bureau, continue to show the strongest growth in percentage terms of any race and ethnicity category. Though their numbers are not high compared to other groups, the projections show growth from about 127,000 graduates in 2023 to 214,000 by 2041. Multiracial public high school graduates also include high proportions of American Indian/Alaska Natives and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islanders.

White public school graduates: White public high school graduates will see a 26% decline from 1.63 million to 1.2 million students (39% of the total public graduating class).

Black public school graduates: Black public high school graduates are projected to decline by about 100,000 students, from 480,000 in 2025 to 373,000 in 2041, which would represent about 12% of the total public graduating class.

American Indian/Alaska Native public school graduates: American Indian/Alaska Native public high school graduates are projected to decline by 41% from about 30,000 in 2023 to fewer than 18,000 in 2041. A disproportionately high number of American Indian/Alaska Native youth identify also as another race or ethnicity, meaning many of them fall into the Two or More Races or Hispanic categories.

Asian/Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander public school graduates: Asian and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander public high school graduates are projected to decrease from more than 218,000 public graduates in 2023 to fewer than 200,000 as well in 2041. While Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders make up a relatively small proportion of this total, they are disproportionately represented in the two-or-more races and Hispanic categories.

Percent change in public high school graduate projections by race and ethnicity

To see a data visualization of this key finding, click here.