Technical Appendix

Underlying assumptions and data constraints are inherent in any projections and must be understood to determine the appropriate uses and interpretations of the projections. The historical reported counts and the projections of high school graduates in this edition of  Knocking at the College Door rely on several types of data accumulated over many years and spanning over three decades, from school year (SY) 2000-01 to 2022-23. The technical appendix provides an overview of the projection methodology, pertinent information relating to the data underlying the projections, influential factors implicitly modeled in the projections, and other technical information that may be useful to users exploring the data in greater depth. Of continued relevance for this edition of projections are the lingering impacts from the COVID-19 period, referenced in the Technical Appendix, and the Knocking at the College Door report, 11th edition,  issued with the projections in December 2024. 

Datasets and Data Sources and Notes

This file contains reported and projected data about public and private high school graduates from the class of 2008 to 2041 for the nation, regions, and states, as well as by race and ethnicity (for public schools only).

WICHE provides these data and tools for public research purposes. We strongly recommend that users review the published Technical Appendix for important information about data sources and methodology, and the state-by-state Data Sources and Notes, which are also included in this datafile.

By using these data, you acknowledge that WICHE is not liable for their use and bears no responsibility for the interpretations presented or conclusions reached based on analysis of the data. Any use or works resulting from analysis of the provided data must be attributed. See Suggested Citation at the bottom of this page. 

Detailed information about the source and relevant observations about the data used for the projections for the nation, regions, and each state. This information is also provided with the projections in the interactive charts, dashboards, and downloadable datasets.