COVID-19’s impact on the education pipeline will be felt for years to come.

A key question for this edition of Knocking at the College Door is how the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting current and projected future K-12 populations. Data show a decline in K-12 enrollments in earlier grades that produces slightly lower estimates of future graduating classes, while the students who remain in our education systems face learning deficits.

There are also concerns about college readiness, academic preparation, and learning loss, all of which impact the educational experience and student outcomes. The available data show fewer students enrolled than previously projected, with the greatest differences in elementary school grades (grades one through five). Through 2037, the changes in K-12 enrollment cumulatively lead to about 750,000 fewer high school graduates compared to the previous projections.

Click here to read more about Knocking’s Methodology and Adjusting for COVID-19.

Potential Explanations

Research suggests a combination of factors that may account for lower rates of enrollment and graduation. The decline in public school enrollments does not appear to represent students and their families choosing private school options instead. While it is conceivable that students moved from public schools to private schools, the data do not show a net increase over previous projections. If there was a shift from public schools to private schools, it was offset by an even greater shift from private schools to someplace else. In summary, while there has been recent overall positive enrollment news for the private school sector, it would not appear to account for the vast majority of the reduced public school enrollments.

High school graduates, 2020 Knocking projections compared to 2024 Knocking projections

To see a data visualization of this key finding, click here.