Declines in the West, Midwest, and Northeast regions are starker than originally projected, yet the South is anticipated to grow.

Changes and trends in the number of high school graduates vary considerably across the country. Given that most institutions draw from a specific geographic area for enrollment, more detailed information about trends is essential. Additionally, there are multiple dimensions of geography and location to consider. In addition to examining trends by region and state, there are important nuances based on whether school systems are in urban or rural locations.

Compared to 2023, 38 states are projected to see a decline in the number of graduates by 2041. Only 10 states are projected to grow from the national peak of total number of high school graduates in 2025.

The West will have some gains in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota but has an overall projected 20% drop that will most deeply be felt in Hawai’i (-33%), California (-29%), Wyoming (-23%), New Mexico (-21%), Oregon (-19%), Alaska (-14%), and Colorado (-12%).

The South will see an overall gain of 3% between 2023 and 2041, but two states will see significant declines, including West Virginia (-26%) and Mississippi (-16%).

The Midwest will see 16% declines in graduates by 2041. The largest declines are in the states with the biggest populations — Illinois (-32%) and Michigan (-20%) will greatly affect the entire region. Other states will also see double-digit declines, including Wisconsin (-15%), Minnesota (-12%), Missouri (-12%), Kansas (-12%), and Indiana (-10%).

The Northeast will see a 17% decline in high school graduates. The largest declines are for New York (-27%) and Pennsylvania (-17%) followed by Rhode Island (-15%), Vermont (-15%), Maine (-10%), and New Hampshire (-10%). Only New Jersey will remain largely unaffected, with the number of graduates expected to decline by only 1%.

Projections by Urban and Rural Location: WICHE adapted its projection model to examine at a high level whether graduate numbers in urban and rural areas are likely to shift. Because graduate numbers are not reported uniformly according to this definition, WICHE examined 12th-grade fall enrollments, which is a close proxy for future graduate numbers. Using the U.S. Department of Education’s definitions of “locale,” we have analyzed enrollment trends and projections by the categories of city, suburban, town, and rural areas. The first two designations are sub-categories of the U.S. Census Bureau’s “urban” definition, while the latter fall into the “rural” category. Additionally, because birth information is not available by this disaggregation, we can only make projections through 2033-34.

While WICHE will examine these enrollment patterns in deeper detail in future work, the standout data points indicate that there are projected to be nearly 44,000 more public 12th graders in rural high schools in 2033-34, while the number of 12th graders from public schools located in cities is projected to decline by more than 97,000 students. Schools located in suburban areas are projected to see more than 30,000 more 12th graders, while the number of 12th graders from town locales will increase by about 6,000.

Projected percent change in high school graduates, 2023 to 2041

To explore state-level trends, explore Knocking’s high school graduate data profiles by geographic location. 

To explore trend variation across states, explore Knocking’s key findings interactive dashboards.